Contents

Acknowledgments

Foreword

Part 1: Understanding Global Trends in the Use of Wheat Diversity and International Flows of Wheat Genetic Resources

• Introduction
• Wheat Origins and Germplasm Flows
• Measuring Genetic Diversity
• Genetic Variation among Major Bread Wheats in the Developing World
• Valuing Genetic Resources and Diversity
• Summary and Conclusions

Part 2: The Current World Wheat Situation

• Production
• Trade
• Wheat Utilization
• Stocks and Prices
• The Short-Term Outlook
• Wheat in the Longer Run

Part 3: Selected Wheat Statistics

References

Appendix A: Glossary
Appendix B: Data Sources Used in Part 1
Appendix C: Pedigrees of Several Leading Wheat Cultivars Now Grown in the Developing World
(Note: this Appendix and accompanying figures are not included here but may be seen in the printed version of this publications.)
Appendix D: Regions of the World

Correct citation: CIMMYT. 1996. Mexico, D.F.: CIMMYT 1995/96 World Wheat Facts and Trends: Understanding Global Trends in the Use of Wheat Diversity and International Flows of Wheat Genetic Resources. Mexico, D.F.: CIMMYT.

To cite Part 1: Smale, M., and T. McBride. 1996. Understanding global trends in the use of wheat diversity and international flows of wheat genetic resources. Part 1 of CIMMYT 1995/96 World Wheat Facts and Trends: Understanding Global Trends in the Use of Wheat Diversity and International Flows of Wheat Genetic Resources. Mexico, D.F.: CIMMYT.

Abstract: This document describes wheat's origins and the flows of germplasm between various regions of the world. It summarizes some of the tools biological and social scientists use to measure genetic diversity. It examines patterns of bread wheat diversity in farmers' fields and evidence of genetic variation from breeding programs. Findings suggest that the often-invoked dichotomy between the gene-poor North and the gene-rich South has little validity for wheat. Findings also suggest that yield stability, resistance to rusts, pedigree complexity, and the number of modern cultivars in farmers' fields have all increased since the early years of the Green Revolution. Also included is a description of how economists approach the valuation of genetic diversity. Key policy issues for future research are identified. The report concludes with a brief overview of the world wheat situation in 1995/96, followed by selected statistics on production, consumption, and trade for all regions of the world.

ISSN: 0257-876X
AGROVOC descriptors: wheats; soft wheat; genetic resources; germplasm; biodiversity; genetic variation; plant breeding; disease resistance; yields; pedigree; research projects; innovation adoption; food production; food consumption; economic analysis; international trade; trade policies; statistical analysis
AGRIS category codes: E14, F30
Dewey decimal classification: 338.16

Acknowledgments

The research described here is the result of a joint project between CIMMYT's Economics and Wheat Programs and has benefited from many reviewers and contributors. Reviewers included Derek Byerlee, Gerard Dempsey, Jesse Dubin, Don Duvick, Lloyd Evans, Paul Heisey, Michael Morris, Wilfred Mwangi, Prabhu Pingali, Gustavo Sain, Bent Skovmand, Ravi Singh, Sanjaya Rajaram, and George Varughese. The document has also benefited from the contributions of José Crossa, Tony Fischer, Paul Fox, David Hoisington, Mireille Khairallah, A. Mujeeb-Kazi, Kelly Nightingale, Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Maarten van Ginkel, and Rick Ward.

Research assistance was provided by Pedro Aquino, Victor Hernández, Elizabeth Rice, Roderick Rejesus, Efrén del Toro, and Ning Yang. Computer programming assistance was provided by Rita Barraza and Victor Herrera. Library assistance was provided by Corinne De Gracia. The document was designed by Eliot Sánchez, Miguel Mellado, Juan José Joven, Marcelo Ortiz, Antonio Luna and Ma. Concepción Castro. Tim McBride was the editor.

It would have been impossible to produce this Facts and Trends if scientists throughout the world had not provided us with detailed information about their wheat research and wheat production in their country. Their assistance is gratefully acknowledged:

Muhammed Ramzan Akhtar, Recai Akman, Fahri Altay, Pedro Aquino, Metin Arican, Metin Babaoglu, C. Bainotti, J. Barrett, Borghi Basilio, Ato Bekele Geleta, Bhatta Bhatta, Bayram Bolat, Finn Borum, Hans-Joachim Braun, John Brennan, Keith G. Briggs, Rodrigo Britto Molina, S.J. Brown, Miguel Alfonso Camacho Casas, Ivo Marcos Carraro, Brett F. Carver, Roberto Chacón Martínez, Michel Chapon, Muhammad Hussain Chaudhry, V.S. Chauhan, Braulio Chavez Tamayo, John M. Clarke, Laszlo Cseuz, Natalia Davidova, J.G. Davidson, Carlos Eduardo De Oliveira Camargo, E. Deambrogio, R.M. DePauw, R.N. Devkota, Richard Dzisiak, Ian Edwards, Abdalla B. Elahmadi, Kamel Feliachi, D.W. Feuerhelm, Dario Fossati, Gualtiero Fulcheri, J. Ganbold, Ibrahim Genç, Eneyat Hassen Ghanem, Benito Giorgi, A.K. Godbole, D. Gogas, Viktor Golik, Lisardo Jorge González, Milos Hanis, Naeem I. Hashmi, Rashid Hassan, Ephrame K. Havazvidi, Pierre Hucl, J.M. Jager, L. Jestin, Nils Johansson, Yüksel Kabakçi, Mesut Kanbertay, Suleyman Karahan, Farzand Ali Khan, Miriam Kinyva, Oscar A. Klein, Christof I. Kling, Warren Kronstad, V.P. Kulshrestha, Liu Hongling, Gerard Lohan, Luis Macagno, Benvindo M. Maçăs, P.K. Majumdar, José Marinetto Quiles, Juan Antonio Martín Sánchez, Peter Martin, N.A. Mashiringwani, Ricardo G. Matzenbacher, Craig Meisner, Muhammad Ismail Memon, Mary V. Mugala Mukwavi, Wilfred Mwangi, S. Nagarajan, G.S. Nanda, Ali Reza Navabi, Nelson Neto, Ning Kun, Jorge Nisi, Manuel Obrero Serrano, F.X. Oury, James Owuoche, Fethiye Özberk, Hassan Ozcan, B.B. Pawar, Thomas Payne, M. Pichon, Pingzhi Zhang, V.S. Prakasa Rao, J.L. Purchase, R.K. Rai, I. Ramírez A., A.J. Rathjen, M.A. Razzaque, Miguel Rivadeneira, Carmen Rocha, Eugene Saari, N.N. Saulescu, Ralf Schachschneider, José J. Schvartzman, Rollin G. Sears, Ali Shehadeh, Oscar I. Silvero Sanz, Song He-Xian, Mark E. Sorrells, M. Souleimenov, Wladyslaw Sowa, Loek W. Suys, Luiz H. Svoboda, Douglas Tanner, Ivan Todordv, Roque Tomasini, Gilberto Omar Tomm, Richard Trethowan, Maxime Trottet, José María Urbano Fuentes-Guerra, Hugo Van Niekerk, S.V. Velankar, M.C. Jorge Velasco Lora, Rubén P. Verges, Hector Eduardo Villaseńor Mir, Nasrat Wassimi, Zhao Xianlin, Zhang Pingzhi, Yang Yanhua, Telat Yildirim, Yin Yu Fen, Mohammed Yunus, Zhou Chaofei, Zhu Hua-zhong.

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Foreword

The key to CIMMYT's success in producing improved wheat varieties for a hungry world has been our unique ability to bring together genetic materials from all over the globe and combine them in creative ways. In the near future, genetic resources will become increasingly valuable as advances in science, especially biotechnology, permit greater access to genetic secrets now just beyond our reach.

In this issue of the Facts and Trends series, we report on CIMMYT's ongoing study of wheat diversity and international flows of genetic resources. Part 1 of this document expands on the analysis in our World Wheat Facts and Trends Supplement 1995; the work is part of a joint project between CIMMYT's Economics and Wheat Programs. As is customary in this series, Part 2 provides a brief overview of the world wheat situation in 1995/96, and Part 3 provides selected statistics on production, consumption, and trade for all regions of the world.

In the tradition of our other Facts and Trends studies, this document examines some deceptively simple questions whose answers often turn out to be remarkably complex: Who owns the earth's genetic resources? What do we mean by diversity? How do we measure and value it? How has scientific plant breeding affected diversity in farmers' fields?

Aside from being able to determine "how much" diversity can be found in farmers' fields, researchers and policy-makers need to know where that diversity came from and how genetic resources have been used in wheat improvement programs. The ancestry of any wheat variety reflects a millennia of natural evolution and breeding by farmers and eventually researchers. A single cultivar can represent the lineages of wheats from several continents. But how can we determine whether the system of national and international wheat improvement research has actually enhanced the "useful" genetic diversity in wheat? And if it has, can it continue to do so, or are sources of diversity disappearing?

Our 1995/96 World Wheat Facts and Trends addresses these kinds of questions. It represents an important addition to the intense debate over the use of wheat genetic resources by national and international breeding programs. And it is an important step in CIMMYT's ongoing effort to clarify how international agricultural research has affected wheat genetic diversity in the past and how it can enhance that diversity in the future.

© CIMMYT October 1997

Economics - Maize and Wheat Facts and Trends

Timothy G. Reeves
Director General